David the King

David the King of Israel and the 21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership After two thousand years of being scattered around the world, the Israelites, God’s chosen people were finally able to come back to their historic home. When they finally settled in and formed a new government, they decided to have as their national symbol a flag with the Star of David prominently displayed in the center. One has to ask, of all the great and mighty leaders that have come and gone in the history of ancient Israel, they opted to have David as the symbol of unity, strength, resiliency, courage and above all integrity for the newly formed nation. This paper will look into the life of David and how he has risen from anonymity and transformed himself to become the most effective general and political leader Israel has ever known. Introduction Based on what can be gleaned from the Bible, David did not come from royalty. But his family could not also be considered as dirt poor since his grandparents according to the Book of Ruth owned land. Nevertheless, David had to work as a shepherd boy to help augment the income of his family. They also have no servants because when it was time to seek news and provide supplies to his brothers in the war front, David’s father asked his youngest son to travel instead of asking a trusted male servant to the job. The above-mentioned information is very important because it must be established that David was not groomed as a leader. It also provides contrast to the current situation in the 21st century where people are more aware of leadership quality traits and that schools and leadership programs are being established to replicate good leaders. But it was not the case with David. It can be argued that David was thrust into the limelight so to speak and he did not plot his way to the throne of Israel. When he visited his brothers, he witnessed and heard and unusual sight – the people of God cowered in fear against a man-giant called Goliath. The 8-foot plus warrior was taunting and blaspheming the Israelites and Yahweh respectively. His young heart could not take the insults and so he decided to do something about it and the rest as they say is history. 21 Laws of Leadership The fact that David did not consciously desired to be king and the fact that his family did not actively encouraged him to set his sights so high can be a very good starting point for studying the 21 laws of leadership. If Maxwell was right then even ancient peoples practiced these principles. If this study provides proof that an ancient leader such as David did indeed – consciously or unconsciously – sought out the benefits of these principles then at the end of this study one can conclude that John Maxwell was right to say that these principles are indeed irrefutable. The following pages describes Maxwell’s laws of leadership as seen in the life of David: A. The Law of the Lid- Leadership ability determines a person’s level of effectiveness David did not enroll in leadership school. His was a training program found in the wilderness. It was not formal but he desired to perfect the little talent that he had and from here he accelerated faster than the others did. During this time all he knew was three skills. The first one was to tend sheep; the second one is the ability to ward off predators using a slingshot and stick; and finally the ability to play the harp B. The Law of Process- Leadership develops daily, not in a day There were others who probably knew the same skills set as David but he became an expert in the little things on a daily basis he practiced the playing of the harp and the dead aim of a slingshot-shooter able to scare away lions and bears. He kept plugging on it until his fame grew as a young boy eager to please his father and also as a budding musician skillful with the harp. Because of constantly desiring excellence even in the little things, David was rewarded in his efforts. The news of a good musician skilled in the art of providing happiness to a gloomy heart reached the ears of a depressed King Saul. This was the beginning of an accelerated development process for David. On the part of David, it is very probable that he was not there absentmindedly fiddling with the harp but actively soaking it in learning all that he could. Now, the young is not only learning about the ways of sheep, lions, and bear he is also beginning to get an insight into the ways of a leader in the times when he was called into the palace. During this time, David had insider information as to how a government should be run. There were only a few young men given the privilege of doing so. C. The Law of Intuition- Leaders evaluate everything with a leadership bias There were many examples in his life when one can see this principle regarding intuition is in full display. The first one is when he faced Goliath. David did not grandstand or acted foolish as was suggested by his brothers. God knew what was going on, David was prompted by something so profound that no one in the whole camp was able to understand except this young man. The leader’s intuition was first displayed here when David refused to back down from a blasphemer and instead asked permission to go to battle with the giant. The second time this intuition was on display was when David refused to glory in humiliating Saul and finally when his enemy was killed he did not gloat and showed tremendous restraint choosing instead to mourn the former ruler of Israel. In this way David demonstrated a leadership bias and not merely someone following the dictates of emotions. D. The Law of Influence- The true measure of leadership is influence When David decided to become a dutiful son he immediately became an influence in his region. He was well known and it is the reason why he was brought to the palace of the king. Yet his influence grew even more in his association with the king. Finally his capacity to influence others grew exponentially when he destroyed Goliath. This capability was in full display when was able to convince the King that the whole nation should put their trust in him, knowing fully well that if he failed then Israel will be enslaved by the Philistines. His ability to influence grew as he was considered as Israel’s new hero. The Adult Years In the second phase of his life, David finds himself married, a successful career in the military and serving a delusional king, severely depressed and jealous of his success. It was at this time when he was driven out of the palace and he survived by living in caves. It is also at this point in his life when one can observe the following leadership principles come into play: 1. The Law of E.F. Hutton- When a real leader speaks, people listen 2. The Law of Respect- People naturally follow leaders stronger than themselves 3. The Law of Magnetism- Who you are is who you attract 4.The Law of Solid Ground- Trust is the foundation of leadership 5. The Law of Empowerment- Only secure leaders give powers to others 6. The Law of Connection- Leaders touch a heart before they ask for a hand The people that he met – during the time when he was Public Enemy No. 1 – were acknowledged to be fugitives like David. Many were the dirty dregs of society and the Israeli military would love nothing but their capture. Yet it was from this group that David handpicked his future leaders and used it as the core to create one of the most feared armed forces in the history of ancient warfare (1 Sam. 22). This could only happen if David was able to practice the 8 leadership principles listed above, including those mentioned previously. The desperate men gathered in the caves listened to David because they believe in him and they respect him because they sense that he is a man of inner strength. They probably heard that he was the one who had slain the giant while he (David) was still in puberty. They may have also figured out that Saul is hunting him down though he is innocent. So they were attracted to him because like them he has full of potential but circumstances conspired to make him a lesser man. It is also because of David’s loyalty to Saul – in spite of the king’s ingratitude – that made the people feel that they can trust this young man. So by training them and teaching them how to behave like a disciplined military unit, he was able to touch their inner being and he was able to empower them. Reigning King The following principles are evident even before he was making a push to ascend the throne of Israel. But it was only when he reached manhood when David was mature enough to display the following: E. The Law of Navigation- Anyone can steer the ship, but it takes a leader to chart the course For many years, David was living in a remote outpost far from Saul. But when Saul was dead he knew that the best step is to go to the capital and claim what was rightfully his according to the late prophet Samuel. F. The Law of The Big Mo- Momentum is a leader’s best friend David allowed his organization, his small band of men to gather momentum. There is no use charging a fortified target if the group is not yet ready. Momentum was building for years and when he was ready he made it known that it was time to go to Jerusalem. G. The Law of Timing- When to lead is as important as what to do and where to go Those who are eager enough to seize power and those who are foolish enough to charge in without being sensitive to what is happening all around him is not a good leader. David demonstrated his knack for timing when he did not immediately enter Jerusalem after Saul’s death. He waited until he has gathered enough support – until his army is ready to face whatever it is that the enemy can throw against them. H. The Law of Production- It takes a leader to raise up a leader One of the main reasons why David was able to establish a strong government can be attributed to his ability to raise up leaders. He was able to train former fugitives who used to have no direction in life until he stepped in and intervened in their behalf. The result was awesome, a multitude of military leaders were equipped and made ready for battle. I. The Law of Buy-In- People buy into the leader and then the vision Aside from leading a band of former fugitives to capture Jerusalem and other key areas in the Promised Land, the vision that David provided for his men were almost impossible to achieve. The men who went with him in pursuit of the dream have to believe first in David before they could follow him into harm’s way. J. The Law of the Inner Circle- A leader’s potential is determined by those closest to him It is important to note that David’s capability can also be determined by the caliber of people that he surrounds himself with. According to 2Sam 16 it was not only efficient military commanders that comprise David’s inner circle but also religious men who are also an important component of Israel society. K. The Law of Victory- Leaders find a way for the team to win David, it seems, can find the solution to his problem in just the nick of time. He saw the weakness in Goliath’s armor and he was well aware of his enemies weaknesses and strength allowing him to become Israel’s’ most victorious military strategist. L. The Law of Priorities- Leaders understand that activity is not necessarily accomplishment When Absalom, David’s son decided to rebel against his father and tried to usurp the kingdom, David did the unthinkable. He retreated and crossed the Jordan. He saw no reason to fight Absalom and engage him head on. He was criticized by this act but he demonstrated that it is not only ruthless action that can win wars. M. The Law of Sacrifice- A leader must give up to go up It is too many to count the times when David decided to sacrifice something in order to win. The first time that he demonstrated this is by obeying his father and doing all the tedious work needed to support his family. The second incident is when he decided to run away rather than to stage a coup against his King Saul. N.The Law of Explosive Growth- To add growth, lead followers-to multiply, lead leaders In the earlier part of his reign David was able to grow the army in size and potency in warfare. David has at least thirty chiefs responsible for hundreds of men. On top of this there are many that defected to David to increase further the strength of his army. O. The Law of Legacy – A leader's lasting value is measured by succession Before he died, David left the Kingdom of Israel into the hands of capable men. One of them is Solomon who grew up to lead Israel into its golden age. But there is perhaps no other legacy that David left behind than to prepare a bloodline from which Jesus Christ will come from. Conclusion Even though the 21 laws of leadership was a modern take at leadership principles and values; it is clear to see that ancient men were able to observe and practice them. One of the ancient rulers who benefited greatly from the wisdom of the 21 laws is a young man called David. He was once a shepherd boy who grew up to become one of the most beloved and one of the most accomplished military general and ruler of Israel. References Maxwell, J. (2007). The 21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership. Retrieved from: Â  Accessed 17 September 2007. Holy Bible. (2005) Today’s New International Version. CO: International Bible Society. Â  

Company Q Social Responsibility Essay

Company Q Social Responsibility Social responsibility is often viewed as an inconvenience that cuts into shareholder profits. An organization that with this outlook on social responsibility is missing a significant opportunity to improve public perception and drive profits. This is clearly the view of company Q. When twice presented with the opportunity to create both social and monetary capital, they failed miserably. This likely contributed to the closure of 2  stores due to low performance. Not only are they harming their stakeholders (the communities in which they operate) but, they are also harming their shareholders by not capitalizing on revenue opportunities. (Ferrell et al., 2013) There are three clear answers to their deficiencies. The first and most obvious is to begin donating the items that are expired to the local food bank as requested. The second is to implement a code of ethics in the corporate guidelines. Lastly, they should be expanding the current selections of healthy and organic foods. If th ese steps are followed, can the Company Q dig itself out of the loss column and see some profits? The answer is yes. Company Q was recently approached by the local food bank, and asked to donate the day old foods that Company Q had been throwing away. Management declined, opting instead to to continue to write the food off as a loss and throw it into the trash. The reason that was cited was concern for fraud and employee theft. This is an example of the company taking the short term bottom line approach. They have completely ignored an opportunity for positive public relations and social capital. Both of which have been shown to have a positive impact on monetary capi- Running Head: Company Q Social Responsibility There are few opportunities that a business is given where the benefits are so obvious with very little capital investment. How does Company Q accomplish this without risking fraud and employee theft. The answer is simple. Management is clearly not showing a commitment to ethical behavior and it has trickled down to the employee level. An organization cannot expect individual ethics to self govern organization ethics. (Ferrell et al., 2013) If Company Q were to draft a corporate code of ethics, there would be clear guideline to follow when it came to employee expectations. In a perfect world company would draft provisions within this code of ethics for positively impacting the communities they operate beyond offering goods and services for sale. This would send a clear message to  employees of expectations give the company a more positive outlook on social responsibility. Thereby, benefiting both stakeholders and shareholders alike. (Ferrell et al., 2013) Company Q has a fiduciary responsibility as well as a social responsibility. Their fiduciary responsibility is to their shareholders. Management has missed out on opportunities to grow the business in market segments that had been previously ignored. It is not often that customers give direct feedback that translates to higher profits. In the case of healthy organic food options being requested by customers, this is the case. Not only have customers stated that they will buy these items, but these are high margin items that will drive profits, and allow them to increase value for their shareholders. At the same time their social responsibility obligations are being fulfilled by offering these healthy foods to customers. Running Head: Company Q Social Responsibility In a time when many small local businesses struggle to compete with large mega corporations such as Wal-Mart, they cannot afford to ignore an option for strengthening their business. Even if it is different than what they have traditionally done. Reference Ferrell, O. (2013). Business Ethics 2009 Update: Ethical Decision Making and Cases [VitalSouce bookshelf version]. Retrieved from http://online.vitalsource.com/books/9781285279985/id/ch2-L1

International Business Environment in Ireland Case Study - 1

International Business Environment in Ireland - Case Study Example Within the combination of various factors that influence development, the government of Ireland embraces peace and socio-cultural integration so that the country is able to recognize business partners as part of their economic development stakeholders hence handling business partners with the diligent they require. Cut in government spending is also a factor which boosted the performance of the economy of Ireland. Tax reduction was meant to reduce the cost of investment and attract foreign investors in the country. That is why Microsoft was attracted to invest in information technology business in Ireland which generated a lot of economic activities and contributed positively towards the gross domestic product. With control over the inflation, the country is able to gain from Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) increasing the number of the business transaction between traders and intergovernmental organization to the benefit of the country. However, with the peaceful transition in government, the economic state of the country has withstood the tough global economic challenges that face many countries in the global market resulting into heavy losses in business and trade as a whole (Gordon Bigelow, 2003, p. 45). The overall ability of a country to attract foreign investment also depends on membership of an economic trading block. In case of Ireland membership of European economic commission not only provided the market to the country but also enabled it to diversify its export products. Initially, Ireland depended on the markets of the united kingdom alone which relied mostly on agricultural products only. Through membership of the economic block Ireland was able to open up to competition for its products as well (Philip, 2000, p. 17).

Importance of Play Pedagogy in the Curriculum for Young Children's Essay

Importance of Play Pedagogy in the Curriculum for Young Children's Learning and Development - Essay Example r hand is a preset framework that outlines all what learners should be taught the quality and to some extent the methods that should be used, it however provides allowance for the teacher to act flexible based on the education setting or context. Most definitions of play tend to emphasize on the fact that it is a non-serious activity done for enjoyment especially for children, bearing this general definition in mind, one immediately sees why the idea of uniting it to pedagogy and curriculum would be a challenge to many. Pedagogy is seen as a formal and serious construct and there traditional schools f though imagined that the only rile lay would serve in pedagogy was disruptive as opposed to constructive. Therefore this ensured that play was separated from the curriculum and by extension pedagogy, however studies by constructivists such as Vygostky and Piaget have in the past few decades revolutionize this perception. Background Archaeological and anthropological records show evidenc e of the presence of play, dating back to the prehistoric times, since in various sites, archaeologist have discovered several items that are attributed to a playful human history. This evidence includes dice gaming sticks and bones all, which can be traced as far back to the Palaeolithic era (Fox 1977). Excavations in countries like China have discovered miniature metal and clay toys that are presumed to have been used by children, in addition there in the Egyptian temples there are drawings of adults and children actively engaged in play. Historical and anthropological studies in to the nature of the European childhood have revealed that like today, the classical Greek and roman cultures valued play and comparative analysis indicate that much of what is practiced today evolved from the ex... This paper stresses that role play in pedagogy has radically changed and diversified over time and there is little doubt that it will continue to do so in posterity. However it remains a serious challenge for anyone to make a definitive prediction of the future of the construct owing to the extensive differences in the implementation and integration of play in curriculum. For one despite policy regarding EYFE, many teacher do not spend as much time as they should assisting or supervising play because they fear, rightfully so, that it will negatively affect the measurable output form their learner which in the paper grades. This report makes a conclusion that while there are those who hold that didactic learning is more important than play, empirical and theoretical knowledge proves beyond any doubt that children benefit a great deal from play especially when applied creatively by the teacher. An examination of the various types of play reveals that from the time they are born a child will try to engage in some sort of play and it is through such activity that they interact with the world and independently develop, social, cognitive intellectual and other skills. Therefore it is essential that institutions and individual engaged in pedagogy take to consideration the benefits of play and create time space and opportunity for children to play since in the long run, they will be better students and more balanced in terms of social cognitive advancement if they have ample chances to play as opposed to being continuously drilled.

What Should be Done to Youth Offenders Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

What Should be Done to Youth Offenders - Essay Example The core motivating principle of the juvenile system is rehabilitation. This is because juveniles are not fully mentally or physically developed; they cannot be accountable for their actions in the same way as adults. Additionally, many juvenile offenders come from broken homes or bad neighborhoods and many have been abused. They need a second chance because many have not received even a first chance. Additionally, rehabilitation is by far the best option for them because of the way they would almost certainly be exploited and turned into hardened criminals if sent to prison. This paper will provide further background to the issue of rehabilitating juvenile offenders, and strongly argue that it is the right approach. The justice system fulfills an important symbolic function by establishing standards of conduct. It formally defines right and wrong for citizens and frees them from the responsibility of taking vengeance, thus preventing the escalation of feuds within communities. The system protects the rights of free citizens by honoring the principle that individual freedom should not be denied without good reason. Rehabilitation has as its objective the return of offenders to the community as cured and viable members of society. The rehabilitation efforts of the 1980s and 1990s were to a large extent unsuccessful. No program appeared to be any more effective in changing criminals than any other program, so a sizable portion of the people released from prison continued to return (Murphy 49). This led many to conclude that the best, and possibly only, alternative was simply to remove offenders from the community, precluding any further vexation and exploitation by them. Since criminals are thought to be more likely to commit crimes than those never convicted of a criminal act, it follows that some benefits will be derived from incarcerating convicted criminals. Incapacitation has the greatest potential as a method of crime control if it is a few hardened criminals who commit most crimes. If they can be identified, convicted, and incarcerated for long periods, a significant reduction in crime would be realized. Most advocates of punitive reform have this perspective on the criminal population. Blame for the majority of crimes committed is placed on a relatively few compulsive, predatory individuals thought to commit hundreds if not thousands of crimes each year (Newburn 54). The final goal behind the punitive reform movement is the reestablishment of retribution. Of all penal goals, retribution is the most moralistic. It contains an element of revenge because the victim deserves to be repaid with pain for the harm suffered. Justice is achieved when the punishment given the of fender is equivalent to the harm accruing from the criminal act. Consequently, a social balance or equity is reestablished and maintained within society. But the rules are to some extent thrown out the window when it comes to juvenile offenders. These individuals are categorized differently and there is a separate legal system for them. By the federal standards, any juvenile under the age of 18 who committed a crime is a juvenile delinquent. This is a decision we have taken as a society. We believe that there are serious and important differences between adults and juveniles, and that a one-size fits all approach is not desirable and will not make the situation better. Juveniles are more malleable and easy to influence. It is largely believed that the criminal actions of juveniles might be influenced by such external forces as parental neglect, inappropriate living conditions or relations inside the family. Because of these facts, rehabilitation is an attractive option in dealing with

Latin American Region Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Latin American Region - Essay Example Latin American countries share a common preference for family over community needs. This is a stereotype that Latin Americans are particularly proud of because it shows their tight knit family and positive family values. It is no secret that the region suffers from severe poverty and inequality. This is no stereotype; it is the harsh reality most Latin Americans face every single day. Some regions barely have access to basic necessities like clean water and irrigation. When it comes to politics, Latin Americans also share a penchant for left-wing affiliations and guerilla wars, as well as a widespread smattering of military coups and sieges. Most Latin American countries share another undesirable yet common trait-various states of insurgency and overall political and economic uncertainty. These factors continue to drive a wedge between the region's many countries, sowing division and conflicts among Latin American countries. Jorge G. Castaeda talked about these groups in his article entitled Latin America's Left Turn (http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/politics/left.htm) published in May/June 2006. In the article, Mr. Castaeda related, "But understanding the reasons behind these developments requires recognizing that there is not one Latin American left today; there are two. One is modern, open-minded, reformist, and internationalist, and it springs, paradoxically, from the hard-core left of the past. The other, born of the great tradition of Latin American populism, is nationalist, strident, and close-minded. The first is well aware of its past mistakes (as well as those of its erstwhile role models in Cuba and the Soviet Union) and has changed accordingly. The second, unfortunately, has not." Factors that Divide Latin American Countries For years, the countries have been divided by guerrilla wars, military coups, strikes, assassinations, demonstrations and other means to overthrow the ruling parties. The region's political scene has been going through a major overhaul in the past several years after decades of uncertainty and countless administrations later. Conflicts between the traditional elitists and the new groups including the student and peasant movement, the labor unions, leftist revolutionaries remained, resulting in continuing instability. The Latin American countries' political and economic struggles have been very colorful. For decades, most of the region's countries have been a fixture of the political equator's far left. The region has seen the rise and fall of dictators and leaders as well as the ebb and flow of the countries' respective economies. Just over a decade ago, Latin America was about to usher in a new era of economic progress and democracy. Alas, a lot can happen in a decade. From Venezuela to Mexico, Brazil to Uruguay, Bolivia to Peru and even Nicaragua-Latin America is now the silent witness to the rise and apparent return of the leftist movements across the region. Factors that Unite Latin American Countries The one thing that creates a homogeneous environment among Latin American co

Renewable Energy Opportunities Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Renewable Energy Opportunities - Research Paper Example The research will be conducted using both primary and secondary sources, whereby, primary research will entail field surveys that will be conducted in areas where solar and wind energy has been used. The main method for data collection during the study using this method is going to be interview and observation. The residents shall be interviewed on the motivation that has made them invest in renewable energy. Additionally, they will be required to give a list of challenges that they have faced in harvesting energy from renewable sources. Similarly, the researcher will observe to give a report on the possible factors that might have made the region a suitable place to set up energy harvesting plants.Secondly, in secondary resources, the researchers will be required to read from relevant materials that have been researched and recorded by others in the past. The researcher will be able to have enough material in supporting the research topic. The research is conducted to establish usef ul measures that can be implemented to increase energy production from secondary sources to reduce overreliance on non-renewable sources electricity. The research will create a platform where the researcher will be able to get feedback from the public hence will be able to make informed recommendation about the steps to be taken to improve the situation. Globally, there have been organizations and institutions that are keen on ensuring the implementation of projects on harvesting energy from sustainable sources.... researcher will be able to get feedback from the public hence will be able to make informed recommendation about the steps to be taken to improve the situation. Project Background Globally, there have been organizations and institutions that are keen on ensuring the implementation of projects on harvesting energy from sustainable sources. There are organizations that have received international recognition in renewable energy and they include: international Energy Agency among others. This organization supports the use of renewable energy to diversify energy sources (Langwith 112). Motivation Overreliance on non renewable sources is leading to depletion of the resource. Additionally, such sources of energy lead to pollution of environment since global gases are released to the air during combustion. Continued exploitation of fossil fuels to get energy will lead complete depletion of the resource. Use of renewable sources of energy will lead to flexibility in energy provision system a nd residents will not suffer following failure of energy supply (Bazia & Abdollah 26). Research objective The aim of this research is to establish whether there is a way in which harvesting of energy from renewable sources can be implemented for large scale harvesting of the energy. After carrying out the study, it will be established that it is possible to harvest energy from renewable sources in large scale as an alternative to non renewable energy. Literature review Across the world, the market for renewable energy is growing rapidly. Most people who are focusing in renewable energy are motivated by high prices for oil, climate change due to global warming and support from the governments. Government agencies in many countries are for the idea of investing funds and skills in improving

Treating Abused Adolescents by Eliana Gil Essay

Treating Abused Adolescents by Eliana Gil - Essay Example Gil begins the book by outlining the case of Jennifer, who was subject to sexual abuse from the age of 2. Having run away from home and several foster homes, she turned to prostitution and panhandling and becomes pregnant by the age of 13. Jennifer was a seemingly hopeless case as she had suffered too long and too deeply. Yet she dug deep within and found the courage to cope with her problems effectively. On this inspiring note, Gil proceeds to give an overview of the book. She describes the term â€Å"adolescence† and gives us a history of its roots, explaining how social and political movements and changes have influenced our perception and understanding of these individuals. Adolescence is a crucial developmental period in the life of the individual and traumatic events that disrupt normal development may have lifelong implications for the victim. This is therefore a serious issue and one that has been largely ignored because of existing misconceptions about adolescents who are in a delicate transitional phase, where they are neither children nor adults.

Sensory perception Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 1

Sensory perception - Essay Example Second, interpretation determines whether sensory information is accurate or inaccurate. Interpretation illustrates how individuals perceive different situations through thoughts and beliefs. Therefore, the way an individual interprets a situation determines the accuracy or inaccuracy of sensory information. Third, the way a person perceives events in his surrounding determines whether the sensory information is accurate or inaccurate. Humans only believe what they can perceive and deny anything that challenges their beliefs (Schacter, 2011). Therefore, people’s perceptions determine the accuracy or inaccuracy of sensory information. There are a number of factors that determine the accuracy of sensory data; three of them are cognitive capability, source of data, and reliability of observed facts. First, a person’s ability to evaluate sensory information is dependent on a healthy brain. The senses capacity is emphasized when a person’s brain stores sensory information. This means proper data will be perceived as accurate and incorrect sensory data passed on to the brain will be translated as inaccurate. Second, the source of data influences the accuracy of sensory data. Data or information is obtained from the sense of hearing, touch, smell, and sight. These senses provide accurate sensory information. In addition, a person’s senses should be able to nurture the brain so as to establish correct sensory perception of the information that is received by the brain. Finally, the reliability of observed facts also ascertains the sensory data’s accuracy. Picking up sensory data through defin ed examination will provide facts and information that are significant for thought linkage or accurate sensory perception (Robinson, 1994). Both nature and nurture play a significant part in understanding and assessing sensory data. Natural

Third King Jigme Dorji Wangchcuk Essay Example for Free

Third King Jigme Dorji Wangchcuk Essay The third druk gyalpo was born on may 2,1928 at thruepang palace near the trongsa dzong. in his early education included study of hindi,English languages and the Buddhist literature. he started the training at his father’s royal court early learning through the instruction from his father and court officials, the tradition and driglam namzha. In 1943,at the age of 14, he was awarded the post trongsa droenyer the red scarf. the prince went to kalimpong and then to great britian for further studies. his father his majesty jigme wangchuck deeply thought of giving the future king a broader education. After arriving back to bumthang ,jigme dorji wangchuck was appointed paro poenlop at the age of 17. in 1952 ,he married azhi kezang chedon and princess choeying wangmo dorji Gongzim sonam tobgye dorji Gongzim ugyen dorji Sherpa penchung pala Azhi kezang choedon,gongzim palden dorji Ugyen dorji who served as he gyadrung to trongs poenlop was later promoted to gongzim when ugyen wangchuck assumed the throne. sonam tobgye dorji took the post of gongzim in the rein of 2nd king Jigme wangchuck. sonam tobgye dorji’s son palden dorji took the post after the death of his father. In 1952 the 2nd king passed away leaving the throne to jigme dorji wangchuck. Jigme dori wangchuck was by then well trained and educated by his father and was ready to take the throne. his majesty had a aim of making a organized government and to preserve Bhutan’s rich culture and tradition. His majesty assumed the position of head o state and government (the commander in chief and the ultimate court of appeal). The king after receiving the scarves of kingship from the sacred shrine of zhabdrung participated in three day ceremony in paro. Massive crowd gathered including the British official and choegyal of Sikkim. the capital was moved to thimphu and had become the permanent national capital and built his palace at kazhinag,dechencholing. Social Reforms removal of slavery and serfdom he had put in lots of effort to abolish the practice of seftdom and slavery which had been in country since he 17th century.

Assessing Pain in in Post Operative Breast Cancer Patients

Assessing Pain in in Post Operative Breast Cancer Patients Comparison between Brief  Pain  Inventory (BPI) and Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) for post-operative pain assessment in Saudi Arabian  breast cancer patients. Questions Does  BPI assess  post-operative breast cancer pain  more  accurately than NRS? Summary: Effective pain assessment is one of the  fundamental  criteria  of the  management of  pain. It involves  the  evaluation of pain intensity, location of the pain and response to treatment. There are  a  number  of multi and one-dimensional assessment tools  that  have already been established to assess cancer pain. Among these  are the  Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) and  the  Numerical Rating Scale (NRS), Breast cancer is  a growing public  concern in Saudi Arabia  as rates continue to escalate, with patients  also  suffering multiple problems after surgery. Therefore, my research aim is to  conduct a  comparative study  of tools  used to  assess post-operative breast cancer pain  in  Saudi Arabian  patients  and determine which is the most effective. In this process I will use questionnaires for both nurses and patients to collect data,  followed by statistical analysis and  a  comparative  study between  the  BPI and NRS. Research Hypothesis: BPI assesses  post-operative breast cancer pain  in Saudi Arabian  patients  more  accurately than NRS.   Null hypothesis: There is no significant difference between BPI and NRS  as tools for  assessing post-operative breast cancer pain  in  Saudi Arabian  patients Background: Pain is defined as  Ã¢â‚¬Ëœthe normal, predicted physiological response to an adverse chemical, thermal or mechanical stimulus related with surgery, trauma or acute illness’ (Carr and Goudas, 1999).  Pain assessment is a crucial component for the effective management of post-operative pain in relation to breast cancer. The patient’s report is the main  resource  of information  regarding the  characterisation and evaluation of pain; as such, assessment is  the ‘dynamic method of explanation of the syndrome of the pain, patho-physiology and  the basis for  designing a protocol for its management’  (Yomiya, 2011). A recent survey  questioned almost 900 physicians  897 and found  that  76% reported substandard  pain assessment  procedures  as the single most important barrier  to  suitable  pain management (Roenn  et al, 1993). Breast cancer is characterized by  a  lump or thickening in  the  breast, discharge or bleeding,  a  change in colour of  the  areola, redness or pitting of skin  and a  marble like area under  the  skin (WebMD, 2014[A1]). Breast cancer  has a high prevalence rate globally and is the second most diagnosed cancer in women. Approximately  1.7 million cases were reported in 2012  alone  (WCRFI, 2014). In 2014,  just over  15,000  women  have  already  been  diagnosed with breast cancer: this figure is predicted to rise to around 17,200 in 2020 Breast cancer  has also been identified  as one of the major cancer related problems in Saudi Arabia, with 6,922 women were  assessed[A2]  for breast cancer between 2001-2008 (Alghamdi,  2013[A3]). D  Pain assessment tools Polit  et al  (2006) conducted  a systematic review of the evidence base  and  recorded a total of  80 different assessment tools that  contained  at least one pain item. The  tools were then  categorised into pain tools  (n=48)  and general symptoms tools  (n=32) . They were then  separated into uni-dimensional  tools  (which measure the pain intensity)  and multi-dimensional tools  (include more than one pain dimension). 33%  of all pain tools  (n=16) were uni-dimensional, and  50% of all  general symptom tools  (n=16)were uni-dimensional. 58% of the uni-dimensional tools  employed  single  item scales such as  the  Visual  Analogue  Scale (VAS), Verbal Rating Scales (VRS)  and NRS (Numerical  Rating  Scale). The most common dimension  included  was pain intensity, present in 60% of  tools. In  the assessed tools, 60% assessed pain  in a  multi-dimensional  format. Among  pain tools,  67% were found   to be  multi-dimensional  compared with 50% of the general symptom tools.  38% of all multi-dimensional tools were two-dimensional.  The most  commonly used  dimension was  Ã¢â‚¬Ëœintensity’,  present  in 75% of  all  multi-dimensional tools. Other common  dimensions  include  interference, location  and beliefs. All the dimensions were specifically targeted by two particular tools which were disease-specific tools and tools that measure pains affect, beliefs, and coping-related  issues[A4]. Multidimensional Pain assessment tools: F  The  adequate measurement of pain  requires  more than one tool. Melzack and Casey (1968)  highlight that  pain assessment  Ã¢â‚¬Ëœshould include three dimensions which are sensory-discriminative, motivational-affective and cognitive-evaluative’.  This builds on the  earlier  proposal of  Beecher (1959)  who considered that all tools should include the  two dimensions  of  pain and reaction to pain. Cleeland (1989)  considered that  the  two dimensions  should be classified  as sensory and reactive. Sensory dimensions  should record  the intensity or severity  of pain  and the reactive dimensions should include accurate measures of interference  in the  daily function  of the patient.   Multi-dimensional pain assessments generally consist of  six  dimensions: physiologic, sensory, affective, cognitive, behavioural and sociocultural (McGuire, 1992). Cleeland (1989)  interviewed patients and  found  that  seven items could effectively measure the intensity and effects of the pain in daily activities: these  comprise  of  general activity, walking, work, mood, enjoyment of life, relations with others and sleep. These elements were later subdivided  into two groups: ‘REM’  (relations with others, enjoyment of life and mood) and  Ã¢â‚¬ËœWAW’  (walking, general activity and work). Later, Cleeland  et al  (1996) developed  the  Brief  Pain  Inventory (BPI) in both  its  short and long form.  It was designed  to capture two  categories  of interference such as  activity and affect on  emotions.  The  BPI provides  a relatively  quick and easy method  of measuring  the  intensity  of pa in  and the  level of  interference  in the  daily activities of the  sufferer. With the BPI  tool, patients are graded  on  a 0-10 and it  was  specifically  designed  for the  assessment of  cancer related pain. Patients  are  asked  about the intensity of the pain that they are experiencing at present, as well as the pain intensity over  the last 24 hours as  the  worst, least  or  average  pain (also  on a scale of 0-10). Each  scale is bound  by the words ‘no pain’  (0) and  Ã¢â‚¬Ëœpain as bad as you can imagine’  (10). Patients are also  requested  to rate the degree to which pain interferes  with their  daily activities within the seven  domains  on a scale of 0-10.  that comprise general activity, walking, mood, sleep, work, relations with other persons, and enjoyment of life using similar scales of 0 to  10[A5]. These scales are only confined by the words ‘does not interfere’ and ‘interferes  completely[A6]’ (Tan  et al, 2004).  Validation of BPI across the world among the different language people has already been justified.  [A7]Additionally, the localization of the pain in the body  could be  [A8]assessed and details of current medication are assessed (Caraceni  et al, 1996). Uni-dimensional pain assessment tool:   Previous studies  have  shown  that  the  Numerical  Rating  Scale (NRS) had the power to assess pain intensity for patients  experiencing chronic pain and was also an effective assessment tool for patients with cancer related pain. The  NRS consists of a numerical scale range between 0-100 where 0 was considered as one extreme point represented no pain and 100 was considered other extreme point which represented bad/ worse pain  (Jensen et al, 1986). Turk  et al  (1993) developed  an  11 point  NRS (scale 0-10) where 0 equalled  no pain and 10  equalled  worst pain. Though cancer pain differs from acute, postoperative and chronic  pain experiences, the most common feature is its subjective nature. [A9]  In this regard a consensus meeting on cancer pain assessment and classification was held in Italy in 2009  with the  recommendation that  pain intensity should be measured  on a  scale  of  0-10 with  Ã¢â‚¬Ëœno pain’à ‚  and  Ã¢â‚¬Ëœpain as bad as you can  imagine[A10]’  (Hjermstad  et al.,  2011). Krebs  et al.  (2007) categorised NRS scores as mild (1–3), moderate (4–6), or severe (7–10). A rating of  4 or 5  is  the most commonly recommended lower limit  for moderate pain and 7 or 8 for severe pain. Aimed at moderate pain assessment,  For the purpose of clinical and administrative use the  recommendation for moderate pain assessment on the scale is a score of 4. Importance of post- operative pain assessment: Post-operative pains  is  very common after surgery  and  the  use of  medication  often  depends  on the intensity of pain  that the patient is experiencing  (Chung  et al, 1997). Insufficient assessment of post-operative pain  can have a  Ã¢â‚¬Ëœsignificant detrimental  effect on raised levels of anxiety, sleep disturbance, restlessness, irritability, aggression, distress and suffering’  (Carr  et al,  2005). Additional  physiological  effects can include  increased  blood pressure, vomiting and paralytic ileus, increased adrenaline production, sleep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolus (Macintyre and Ready, 2002). Effective post-operative pain assessment ensures better pain management  and can significantly reduce the risk of the symptoms listed above, giving minimal distress or suffering  to patients  and reducing  potential complications (Machintosh, 2007). References: Alghamdi IG, Hussain II, Alhamdi MS, El-Sheemy MA (2013) Arabia: an observational descriptive epidemiological analysis of data from Saudi Cancer Registry 2001-2008. Dovepress. Breast cancer: Targets and therapy; 5: 103-109. Caraceni A, Mendoza TR, Mencaglia E (1996) A validation study of an Italian version of the Brief Pain Inventory (Breve Questionario per la Valutazione del Dolore). Pain; 65: 87-92. Carr D and Goudas L. C. (1999) Acute pain. Lancet 353, 2051-2058. Carr EC, Thomas NV, Wilson-Barnet J (2005) Patient experiences of anxiety, depression and acute pain after surgery: a longitudinal perspective. International Journal of Nursing Studies. 42(5): 521-530. Chung F, Ritchie E, Su J (1997) Postoperative pain in ambulatory surgery. Anaesthesia and Analgesia 85: 808-816.   Cleeland CS (1989) Measurement of pain by subjective report. Issues in pain measurement. New York: Raven Press; pp. 391-403. Cleeland CS, Nakamura Y, Mendoza TR, Edwards KR, Douglas J, Serlin RC (1996) Dimensions of the impact of cancer pain in a four country sample: new information from multidimensional scaling. Pain 67 (2-3): 267-273. Hjermstad MJ, Fayers PM, Haugen DF, Caraceni A, Hanks GW, Loge JH, Fainsinger R, Aass N, Kaasa S (2011) Studies comparing numerical rating scale, verbal rating scale and visual analogue scales for assessment of pain intensity in adults: a systematic literature review. Journal of pain and symptom management. 41 (6): 1073-1093. Jensen MP, Karoly P, Braver S (1986) The measurement of clinical pain intensity: a comparison of six methods. Pain 27: 117-126. Krebs EE, Carey TS, Weinberger M (2007) Accuracy of the pain numeric rating scale as a screening test in primary care. Journal of general medicine. 22(10): 1453-1458. Machintosh C (2007) Assessment and management of patients with post-operative pain. Nursing Standard. 22 (5): 49-55. Macintyre PE, Ready LB (2002) Acute pain management. Second edition, WB Saunders, Edinburgh. McGuire DB (1992) Comprehensive and multidimensional assessment and measurement of pain. Journal of pain and symptom management; 7(5): 312-319. Melzack R and Casey KL (1968) Sensory, motivational and central control determinants of pain: a new conceptual model. In: Kenshalo DR, editor. The skin senses proceedings. Springfield IL: Thomas; pp. 423-439. National Breast Cancer Foundation (NBCF): 2014;  http://www.nbcf.org.au/Research/About-Breast-Cancer.aspx Polit JCHC, Hjermstad MJ, Loge JH, Fayers PM, Caraceni A, Conno FD, Forbes K, Furst CJ, Radbruch L, Kaasa S (2006) Pain assessment tools: Is the content appropriate for use in palliative care? Journal of pain and symptom management, 32 (6): 567-580. Roenn JHV, Cleeland CS, Gonin R, Hatfield AK, Pandya KJ (1993) Physician attitudes and practice in cancer pain management. A survey from the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group. Annals of Internal Medicine, 119(2): 121-126. Tan G, Jensen MP, Thornby JI, Shanti BF (2004) Validation of the brief pain inventory for chronic non-malignant pain. The Journal of Pain. 5(2): 133-137. Turk DC, Rudy TE, Sorkin BA (1993) Neglected topics in chronic pain treatment outcome studies: determination of success. Pain (53):3–16. WebMD (2014)  http://www.webmd.com/breast-cancer/guide/overview-breast-cancer. World cancer research fund international (WCRFI): 2014;  http://www.wcrf.org/cancer_statistics/data_specific_cancers/breast_cancer_statistics.php. Youmiya K (2011) Cancer pain assessment. The Japanese Journal of Anesthesiology. 60(9): 1046-1052. [A1]I would consider using a more reputable source for describing medical symptoms themselves (Grey’s Anatomy, WHO guidelines etc) [A2]and treated? [A3]Is it worth commenting that breast cancer reporting rates in SA might be different from actual prevalence? Lack of awareness regarding certain cancers often results in late diagnosis or misdiagnosis. [A4]This sentence is unclear. I am assuming that you are stating that all dimensions are present in two particular tools? [A5]I’ve deleted this as you have highlighted the same domains in the previous paragraph and the reader will already be familiar with this term. [A6]Sentence shows up on copyscape / turnitin but it’s fine as a directly referenced quote. [A7]Is this sentence stating that the BPIs valid internationally because it has been adjusted culturally / linguistically for all groups? [A8]Are you making a suggestion that it could be assessed, or stating that sometimes people do assess localised pain in the body? [A9]Deleted as the next sentence deals with this already. [A10]Again shows up in turnitin: any quotes must be in inverted commas so that tutors / markers will not downgrade or suspect plagiarism.

Ignorance, Greed, and the American Media Essay -- essays research pape

Ignorance, Greed, and the American Media â€Å"God damn it, an entire generation pumping gas, waiting tables... slaves with white collars. Advertising has its taste in cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don't need. We're the middle children of history, no purpose or place. We have no Great War. No great depression. Our Great War is a spiritual war†¦ Our great depression is our lives. We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd be millionaires, movie gods, and rock stars. But we won't. We're slowly learning that fact. And we're very, VERY PISSED OFF.† This is a quote from the character of Tyler Durden in the 1999 movie Fight Club. This quote is an intricate summary of the current generation of twenty/thirty-something-year-olds. It highlights the fact that this generation was â€Å"raised on television† and one the film’s main themes is how the misuse of media has corrupted the minds of those it influenced beyond repair. And the worst part? It’s all true†¦ The media world today is a strange one. Why are there so few political or current affairs themed programmes on our television screens? Why are the so many American comedies on our screens? Why is it so hard to find a balanced, unbiased news report on the â€Å"war† in Iraq? When John Reith founded the BBC in 1922, as director general, he developed strong ideas about educational and cultural public service responsibilities of a national radio service. He based his ideas on Plato’s philosophy that if you allow the human soul to come into contact with the Good, the True and the Beautiful, the soul will respond. His three aims were to inform, to educate and to entertain. What became of his admirable ideology? Why is it that the main use of media now is seemingly entertainment? Could it be argued that the current misuse of media power is the result of private media ownership? If a businessperson owned a large media empire, would they have any moral concern if their media had a negative effect on society, as long as they were making money? Surely, a government would have a far greater concern for how the generation of tomorrow was affected by the media. If the government were to control the media, couldn’t they mould the current youth into fine and upstanding citizens of the future? But what if the media businessperson somehow gained more influence than the government? What if ... ...Michael (2003) â€Å"Dude, Where’s My Country?† Britain: Penguin Books Gorman, L. & McLean, D. (2003) â€Å"Media and society in the twentieth century: a historical introduction† Britain: Blackwell Publications Films David Fincher (1999) â€Å"Fight Club† US: 20th Century Fox Moore, Michael (2004) â€Å"Fahrenheit 9/11† US: Optimum Releasing Ltd. Websites Stille, Alexander (1999) â€Å"Emperor of the Air† http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml%3Fi=19991129&s=stille The Columbia Electronic Encyclopedia, 6th ed. Copyright  © 2004, Columbia University Press â€Å"Ted Turner† http://www.infoplease.com/ce6/people/A0849757.html Shawcross,William (1999) â€Å"Rupert Murdoch† http://www.time.com/time/magazine/intl/article/0,9171,1107991025-33716,00.html Patsuris, Penelope (2001) â€Å"Forbes Face: Rupert Murdoch† http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/02/0102faces.html Gildea, Josh (2004) â€Å"Media coverage of issues not at all fair or balanced† http://www.dailycardinal.com Sterling, C.H. (1993) â€Å"REITH, JOHN C.W.† http://www.museum.tv/archives/etv/index.html Bryan, J. & Zillion, D â€Å"Media Effect: The Psychology of Television† http://www.lucidexperience.com/HypnoPapers/529.html NOTE: All websites were accessed on 2/12/2006

Judgment in Anna Karenina Essay -- Tolstoy Anna Karenina Essays

The question of judgment and sympathies in Anna Karenina is one that seems to become more complicated each time I read the novel. The basic problem with locating the voice of judgment is that throughout the novel, there are places where we feel less than comfortable with the seemingly straightforward, at times even didactic presentation of Anna and Vronsky's fall into sin alongside Levin's constant moral struggle. As Anna's story unfolds in its episodic manner within the context of the rest of the novel, Tolstoy seems to be trying to make the fact of her guilt more and more clear to us; at the same time though, we have more and more difficulty in tracing out the specific locus of that guilt. In a novel as consummately constructed as this one is, we are tempted to look for places where the undercurrents of the text, the places where the text takes on its own life and force, run against, or at least complicate, the discernment of authorial judgment. By closely examining To lstoy's treatment of Anna's moral crisis as compared with his handling of Levin, we might attempt to unravel the book's rather layered and complex system of condemnation. The novel's epigraph sets a certain tone for us before we even begin reading; the biblically inflected "Vengeance is mine; I will repay," plants in our heads the idea that wrong will be done and punishment exacted. Indeed, we come across a wrong in the very first lines of the opening chapter, in Stepan Arkadyich's dalliance with the French governess, which has thrown the Oblonsky house into "confusion."(1) Tolstoy's descriptions of Stepan Arkadyich as a pleasant, honest, well-liked bon vivant seem at times to drip with contempt. He is "lazy and mischievous"(14), his life... ...he end, perhaps because Tolstoy was a better writer than he was true moralist, I'm not sure that Tolstoy ever reconciled the novel's judgment of Anna with his own sympathy and love for her. The result is a novel divided, uneasy with the Å’vengefulness' of its own condemnation, perhaps proud of its over-riding message of living for truth and "the good"(817) in life, but ultimately unable to fully convince us that it gravitates toward its own confused and forced moral center. Works Cited and Consulted Cherneshevsky, Nikolai. "The Anthropological Principle in Philosophy" in Edie, Scanlan and Zeldin, eds., Russian Philosophy Chicago: Quadrangle Books, 1965. Tolstoy, Leo. Anna Karenina, trans. Constance Garnett New York: The Modern Library, 1993. Turgenev, Ivan. Sketches From a Hunter's Album, trans. Richard Freeborn London: Penguin Books, 1990.

Are School Uniforms Beneficial or Not? Essay -- Argumentative Educati

Are School Uniforms Beneficial or Not? (â€Å"Quotes about Uniform Policy† 1). Theodore R. Mitchell, UCLA School of Education says, "I think its great news for all of us who have advocated school uniforms as a way of building community.† A pressing issue, bullying has become a big problem in many school, and to eliminate this problem, school policies should require students to wear uniforms. Many people believe that school uniforms build the community into a safer, more positive environment. School uniforms improve school academics, prevent gang violence, and assist families, who can not afford expensive clothing. Worrying more about others, rather than themselves, students pay more attention to the appearance of their peers instead of their academics. To begin, if school uniforms became apart of the school policy, students’ academics would improve phenomenally. Hanley noted that â€Å"The reason for the policy [was] to further improve ascending test scores and provide a safe, comfortable learning environment† (A1+). Clearly, school administrators wanted to improve test scores, and they figured if students dressed the same, then they would have no other choice but to focus on their school work. If the students can concentrate on their school work, then they will have high self- esteem. Furthermore, Valdez believes that school uniforms, positively, will change student academics: â€Å"†¦ [they] decrease self consciousness and increase self esteem...† (14). Reasonable and realistic, students who feel better about themselves will succeed in school rather than those who have poor self-esteem. Not only do school uniforms encourage students to have a better attitude about themselves, but they also change the environment in which students learn.... ...Print. Hanley, Kipp. â€Å"At Middle School, a uniform solution?† McClatchy-Tribune Business News. 4 Oct 2009: A1+. Sirs Knowledge Source. Proquest LLC. Web. 8 Nov 2010. Mitchell, Theodore R. â€Å"Quotes about Uniform Policy.† Lbschools.net. LBUSD. 2010. Long Beach Unified School District. Web. 15 Nov 2010. Soloman, Louis K. â€Å"Schools Smarten Up Without Uniforms.† Sun Sentinel 30 Jun 2004: A1+. Sirs Knowledge Source. Proquest. Web. 11 Nov 2010. Stephens, Daniel. â€Å"School Dress Codes are Necessary and Constitutional.† Student Rights May 2001: 12-16. Gale. North Caroline Family Policy. Web. 9 Nov 2010. Synder, Susan. â€Å"Shirts Tucked in, Cell Phones Out: School Rules are Changing.† Philadelphia Inquirer 24 Sept 2004: A1+. Sirs Knowledge Source. Proquest LLC. Web. 8 Nov 2010. Valdez, Al. How Can Gang Violence be Prevented? San Clemente: Law Tech, 2005. Print.

Pipeline Risk Analysis

Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas Pipeline Projects in Pakistan S. Mubin1 and G. Mubin2 1 2 Civil Engineering Department University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore, Pakistan Instructor, VTI, PVTC, Govt. of Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan Abstract In order to cater for its high energy demand, Pakistan is planning to import natural gas through pipelines from neighboring countries. For fully utilizing the imported gas, providing it to end customers, the infrastructure of gas pipeline needs to be developed.Therefore, huge investment has been done and proposed in this sector in coming future. Considering geological, topographical, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country, there is added risk of earthquake, landslides and floods. Due to current geopolitical situation there is a persistent threat of unrest and terrorism in the country. Instable Government policies, high rate of inflation, rapid change in material prices ar e also important risk factors.All these factors make the situation very complex in quantifying the risk especially for a project in which the risk impact factor rises exponentially in case of risk occurrence. In this paper, most appropriate risk classification is made based on technological, organizational, political, natural climatic, security and environmental risk factors. Effort has been made to device a simpler risk management methodology to analyze and manage risks of gas pipeline project. In the proposed risk management model Monte Carlo simulation has been used to identify critical risks.Keywords: Oil and Gas pipelines; Risk Analysis and Management; Monte Carlo simulation 1. Introduction Oil and gas sector is considered as back bone of any country’s economy. In Pakistan industrialization, agriculture, transportation and even domestic utilization of the energy depends on oil and gas sector. Almost 80 % of power generation is oil and gas based (50% gas and 30% oil) [1]. For efficient energy production there is a need of efficient transportation system (main and distribution network of pipeline) in the country, which is not sufficient to fulfill the country’s requirement.As per World Bank Report only 21% of the total population of the country has access on natural gas. Due to the growing demands, pipeline network is expanding vigorously as during the last 10 years the network of main and distribution gas pipeline was expanded by 85% [2]. Currently Pakistan is meeting its gas demand by internal sources but by the year 2011 the difference between country’s gas demand and supply will be 1. 2 Bcfd which will rise to 3. 1 Bcfd by the year 2015 and ultimately to 11. 1 Bcfd by the year 2025 [3].To fill the gap between demands and supply Pakistan is planning to import natural gas through pipeline from neighboring countries. Options of Turkmenistan, Iran and Qatar are available for gas import. Figure 1 shows that route of future cross country pipeline. In Pakistan, expected investment in pipeline construction is within range of 7 to10 billion dollars during the next 5-10 years [4]. Structure and characteristics of risk are different in different mega project such as Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline due to multi-party involvement from different geographic locations and regulatory structure [5].These mega projects may be termed as international projects defined as those where the owner and/or contractor may be from a country different to that of where the project is situated typically involve a wider range of issues than domestic projects and in effect, moving outside of one’s usual business jurisdiction interjects many unknowns. Factors impacting owner investment decisions with international capital facilities can be quite complex and may vary significantly from region to region and project to project [18].Nature and impact of risk are different in different stages of project life cycle of pipeline projects. For most e ffective risk management it is recommended to plan, analyze and manage risk in all phases of project life cycle i. e. initializing, concept clearance and feasibility, design, construction and operation. Understanding the relationship between risk Corresponding Author: S. Mubin ([email  protected] edu. pk) Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan management and project phases for capital projects can be a difficult task.For instance, some risks are negligible in construction phase but are of vital importance in design phase such as earthquake. While dealing with risk management of international projects, which are often first or one-time efforts and project progress and phasing decisions can be isolated from risk management. For most international projects, different participants are responsible for control of the various phases of a project’s life cycle. In many cases, the project owner is largely responsible for program analysis, a thirdparty is often hired to design (engineering), construct, manage and control to meet the initial onstraints set by the owner [6]. Contractor is hired to construct the project, which turns the results over to the owner for operations or production. Structuring projects with distinct phases and responsibilities can increase risk by isolating the project participants in such a manner that minimal attention is given to overarching project concerns. Individual project participants become concerned with only their own project risks and either willingly or unwillingly try to transfer these risks to other project participants.To limit the scope of this paper the discussion is confined to the risks occurring during construction and operation phase. Figure 1: The routes of future gas pipeline project in the region. The uncertainty in undertaking construction of a pipeline project comes from many sources and often involves many participants in the project. Since each participant tries to m inimize its own risk, the conflicts among various participants can be detrimental to the project. Systematic risk management of project activities is not fully recognized as valuable by practitioners in the construction industry.No common view of risk exists since the owner, investor, designer, and constructor have differing project goals and objectives, and historically adverse relationships are common. In recent years, the concept of â€Å"risk sharing/risk assignment† contracts has gained acceptance in pipeline design and construction. The distribution of risk between the client and contractor tends to overshadow effective management strategies and investigations show that contactors and owners give minimal consideration to risks outside the realm of their own concerns.The Federation Internationale des Ingenieurs Conseils (the International Federation of Consulting Engineers, FIDIC) and the International European Construction Federation (FIEC) publish two well-known and wi dely-accepted forms of conditions of contract for international construction projects (the Red and Yellow Books) that include provisions on the fair and equitable risk sharing between the owner and the contractor as well as risk responsibilities, liabilities, indemnity, and insurance [7].Considering technological point of view geographical conditions of Pakistan are very complex for the construction of pipeline projects. Almost 50 % of the total area of Pakistan is mountainous or semi-mountainous and in rest of the 23 Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 area there is wide network of rivers and canals (Figure 2). Therefore, for linear structure like pipelines there are extensive crossings and sometimes extreme site conditions are met, where degree of risk is increased as compare to normal conditions of construction.On the other hand, risks during operation of pipelines have different characteristics depending upon the strength and weakness of operating organization, topographi cal, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country where project is executed. While dealing with natural risks, the geology and geographical characteristics of the regions must be thoroughly studied. For instance, the two continental plates i. e. Indian and Eurasian meet in Pakistan which highly impact on the eodynamics of the region which are the major source of earthquake [8]. In monsoon period there is high probability of floods. Typical topography, steep slopes, high rainfall in a specific period (JuneAugust) and high temperature (melting glaciers) are the dominating factors for intensifying the frequency of floods in a particular year. Considering geopolitics of the regions there is a persistent threat of unrest and terrorism.The economic instability has added the problem due to that there is frequent change in economic parameters. All these are in fact the potential risks for any construction project especially oil and gas pipelines in which risk are multiplied many fold and there is exponential rise in damage in case of occurrence of one or more risks resulting huge human and environmental losses. Figure 2: Map of Pakistan showing important geological and geographical features of the country . Classification of Risks For effective Risk Management, risk classification is of prime importance. There are many kinds of classifications have been made so far [10]. In general, risks associated with pipeline projects may be classified as broadly: †¢ †¢ Risk during Construction Risk during Operation However, in operation, risk are slightly different, in which emphasis is given to avoid those factor with hurdle safe and smooth operation/functioning of pipeline.Usually, in mega projects such as cross country trunk pipelines investment risk are considered most import followed by the security risk. More precisely, risk during construction and operation of oil and gas pipelines can be divided into following categories (Table 1): The type and causes of risk in each class are different. Risks during construction are time susceptible and the probability of occurrence of different risk are time dependent, more is the duration of project higher are the probabilities.These are generally related to execution of work processes, material availability, manpower, finances (budget), time frame, accidental, legal and environmental. 24 i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. viii. Political risk Socio-economical risk Technical risk Organizational risk Natural catastrophic risk Financial risk (investment risk) Safety and security risk Environment risk Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Table1: Risk Classifications No 1. Category Risk Political risks Unstable Govt. olicies Change in economic parameters Breach in contractual relationship Unrealistic cost baseline and financial delay Inefficient communication Accident during construction or operation Earthquake Risk Factors Change in labour policy Rise in inflati on and material prices Loss of venture or partnership Exchange rate risk and rise in interest rate Inefficient and conventional technologies Not use of HSE policies and standard floods Damage to surrounding environment Delay in approvals from regulatory bodies Seasonal unavailability of labour Unrealistic SWOT analysis Strikes, lockout, lawlessness Change in economic policies and tax system Fine or compensation 2. Socio-economical risks Organizational risks 3. 4. Investment risk Disinvestment from market Insufficient resources and equipment Terrorism or war Strong credit policy Quality risk and rework Human error (Damage or loss of machine or human resource) Weather conditions e. g. humidity, precipitation Damage to ecology and wildlife 5. Technological risk 6. Security risk 7. Natural and climatic risk Landslide, hurricanes Depletion of hydrocarbon resources 8. Damage to Environmental risk natural resources 2. 1 Political Risk The effect of country’s policies on the project directly impact on project success or failure.During the policy making process, technical factors are usually ignored and policies may be set in a way that operation of a project may not be economical or trade offing. This factor is also important in unstable governments, where there is more risk of change of economic, petroleum or labor policies, which are directly related to the pipeline projects. Delays can occur due to laborious and detailed procedure for approval from public safety regulation department, environmental regulation agencies and oil and gas regulatory bodies. Public health, safety and environmental concern are more important in the western countries as compare to developing countries like Pakistan. Policy and political risks are more concerned in international project risks, such as cross border pipeline projects.In international projects these risks 25 are sometimes overlooked or assessed haphazardly. Such risks include war, civil war, terrorism, expropriation, in ability to transfer currency across borders, and trade credit defaults by foreign or domestic customers [6]. Although risks such as civil unrest and economic stability are typically outside the scope, understanding and dealing with these risks are critical for companies working internationally. A 2001 study by AON Trade Credit discovered that, in the Fortune 1000, only about 26 percent of companies had in place systematic and consistent methodologies to assess political risks [6]. 2. 2 Socio-economical riskSocio-economical conditions further reinforced the climate of uncertainty with high inflation and interest rates. The deregulation of financial institutions has also generated unanticipated problems related to the financing of construction. These risks can be forecasted and linked with the economic indicators of the country. For instance, In Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Pakistan, the economic indicators are tending to grow regardless of the political instability in t he country. The GDP of the country was 8. 4% prior to 2005 earthquake, which declined down to GDP 5. 6 or less currently. Earthquake and floods during the last two year costed government approximately $5. 4 B and expected to spend more $3. 6bn till 2010.Overall there is growth in the market and potential for foreign investment in construction sector [1]. 2. 3 Technical risk The risks related to technological problems are familiar to the design/construct professions which have some degree of control over this category. However, because of rapid advances in new technologies which present new problems to designers and constructors, technological risk has become greater in many instances. Certain design assumptions which have served the professions well in the past may become obsolete in present time. Site conditions, particularly subsurface conditions which always present some degree of uncertainty, can create an even greater degree of uncertainty during construction.Because constructi on procedures may not have been fully anticipated, the design may have to be modified after construction has begun. An example of facilities which have encountered such uncertainty is the nuclear power plant, and many owners, designers and contractors have suffered for undertaking such projects. There is a need of technological advancement to overcome this risk. statistics, geological surveys, sub surface investigation through various method has given rise to the development of such techniques which can not only quantify frequency of occurring of such phenomenon in a particular region but also their impact and destruction. Northern areas of Pakistan are considered in high seismic zone [8] particularly after incidence of 8th Oct. 005 earthquake, in which more than 86000 people died and one million got injured and 3 million became homeless, this factor is highly considered in planning, feasibility, design and construction of the any construction project in the region [9]. The major re ason is the plate tectonic motion in Himalaya, northern part of Pakistan. This plate tectonic motion is due to the uplift of Euro Asian plate by Indian plate (two plates are meeting in Pakistan) 2. 6 Investment risk Pipelines are mega project. A lot of funding is required for the completion and safe operation of pipelines. Investment has been always a prime risk in construction project due to multi party involvement.But especially for the international pipeline project, this is always risk of payback and trade offing, because of the bilateral and diplomatic relationships. 2. 7 Safety and security risk In a broader sense, safety and security risks include factors due to that loss or damage of resources (manpower, machinery and financial resources) or facilities (pipeline, pipeline crossing, gas compressor station) can occur during construction or operation phase of a pipeline. It is very often that loss of work time, machinery and manpower occur due to accident on side because of the negligence of some worker. These risks involve all actions (accident, malfunctioning, terrorism, war etc) due to that loss of resources nd production of pipeline can occur. These risks are more likely to occur during operation phase however, these can be occurring in construction stage as well. To cater these risk to occur Health safety policy is strengthen so that to minimize on-site and offsite accidents during construction. It is generally accepted that the pipeline are the target in terrorists’ attacks and wars. For, instance, history prevails that in last five years the total terrorist attacks made on the pipelines in Pakistan were 103. It may be the result of internal political situation of the country but anywhere in the world this factor of risk is considered to be very important.For safe operations, state of the art methodology and technology has been developed which ensure safe exploitation of pipeline, which include remote sensing, Geographical Information System (GIS) and mapping techniques, Light detection and ranging (LIDAR), Global positioning system (GPS), data acquisition (SCADA) and In-line inspection (ILI) etc. 26 2. 4 Organizational risk The risks related to organization and organizational relationships may appear to be unnecessary but are quite real. Strained relationships may develop between various organizations involved in the design/construct process. When problems occur, discussions often center on responsibilities rather than project needs at a time when the focus should be on solving the problems.Cooperation and communication between the parties are discouraged for fear of the effects of impending litigation. This barrier to communication results from the illconceived notion that uncertainties resulting from technological problems can be eliminated by appropriate contract terms. The net result has been an increase in the costs of constructed facilities. 2. 5 Natural catastrophic risk Natural catastrophic risks are those on w hich there is no control. They are usually the ‘act of God’ and can occur at anytime and anywhere. Earthquake, floods, hurricanes are the common examples of these risks. However, due to the development of the science and technology in the field of simulation and modeling,Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan 2. 8 Environmental risk Environmental concerns and awareness is increasing everywhere. The worldwide environmental protection movement has contributed to the uncertainty for construction because of the inability to know what will be required and how long it will take to obtain approval from the regulatory agencies. This delay in approval practically influence on total costs of the project. Public safety regulations have similar effects. The situation constantly change guidelines for engineers, constructors and owners, as projects move through the stages of planning to construction due to the change in govt. policies.These moving targets add a significant new dimension of uncertainty which can make it virtually impossible to schedule and complete work at budgeted cost . Risk management reduces the impact of negative risks and enhances positive risk to make opportunities. However, limiting our scope in this section to negative risks, risk management may be defined as a method to reduce the consequences of negative events (risk) tend to occur during construction and operation of pipeline by developing mechanisms and strategies (risk transfer, risk reduction, risk distribution, avoidance, risk enhancement) compatible to the system environment in which project is executed. The strategy of risk management is based on risk analysis results for a particular project.According to Project Management Institute (PMI) approach of risk management [11] the process includes: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Risk management planning Risk identification Qualitative risk analysis Quantitative risk analysis Risk reduction strategies 3. Ri sk Management Process Generally risk analysis and management had not been applied in construction industry and especially in pipeline projects. It is comparatively new area for pipeline projects, which is rapidly advancing due to the involvement of non native client or contractor. However, the concept of risk analysis and management is getting fame in pipeline project due to involvement of multinational contractor/organizations.Basically risk management deals with management of positive and negative events which occurs during realization of projects. 3. 1 Risk management planning Risk management process (PMI approach) starts with the planning of risk management, which includes a detailed risk management planning. In Risk management planning the proposed course of action for risk analysis is set. The input, output and process are shown in the table 2. Table 2: Process showing Risk Management Planning [19] Input Organizational environmental factor Organizational process of assets Proj ect scope management Project management plan Planning meeting and analysis Risk Management Plan Planning course of action Process Out put 3. 2 Risk Identification processFor effective risk analysis and management the identification of risk is very important carefully such that no important factor is left which can negatively impact on the project. The risk indemnification process input and output are shown in table 3, which include the following: Information Gathering Techniques: Examples of information gathering techniques used in identifying risk can include brainstorming, Delphi techniques, interviewing, root cause identification and SWOT (Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) 27 analysis. Brainstorming is important data gathering technique for risk identification in which a group of team members or subject-matter experts (design, construction, purchase, finance etc) together identify expected risks.Delphi is another technique of information gathering used as a way t o reach a consensus of experts on a subject. Experts on the subject participate in this technique anonymously. A facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit ideas Project Documentation Reviews: For risk identification project documentation are reviewed, including plans, assumptions, prior project files, and other information. The quality of the plans, as well as Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 consistency between those plans and with the project requirements and assumptions, can be indicators of risk in the project. Assumptions Analysis: Every pipeline project is conceived and developed based on a set of hypotheses, scenarios, or assumptions.Assumptions analysis is a tool that explores the validity of assumptions as they apply to the project. It identifies risks to the project from inaccuracy, inconsistency, or incompleteness of assumptions. Table 3: Process of Risk Identification Input Organizational environmental factor Organizational process of assets Project scope man agement Project management plan Risk Management plan Checklist Analysis: Risk identification checklists can be developed based on historical information and knowledge that has been accumulated from previous similar projects and from other sources of information. The lowest level of the RBS can also be used as a risk checklist.Diagramming techniques: Some Risk diagramming techniques may also be used for risk identification which includes cause-and-effect diagrams, system or process flow charts and influence diagrams. Process Information collection Documentation review Assumption analysis Checklist analysis Diagramming techniques Out put Risk Register 3. 3 Qualitative risk analysis There are several theories to quantify risks [12, 17]. Numerous different risk formulae exist, but perhaps the most widely accepted formula for risk quantification is: Rate of Occurrence i. e. , probability multiplied by the Impact of event equal to Risk Number, mathematically expressed in equation 7. The i nputs and output of qualitative risk analysis process is shown in table-4.PMI defined values of probability and impact factor can be used in risk analysis given in Table 5. However, the selection of one of the value of P for a particle risk from table 5, is based on expert judgment which may produce controversial results. The objective is to prioritize risk based on their probability and impact assessment. Probability and Impact matrix is used to visualize the impact of risk from least to maximum possibility. Another method called Risk Data Quality Assessment is used which requires accurate and unbiased data Analysis of the quality of risk data is a technique to evaluate the degree to which the data about risks is useful for risk management.It involves examining the degree to which the risk is understood. Risks to the project can be categorized by sources of risk (e. g. , using the RBS), the area of the project affected (e. g. , using the Work Breakdown Structure), or other useful c ategory (e. g. , project phase) to determine areas of the project most exposed to the effects of uncertainty. Table – 4 Process showing Qualitative risk analysis [19] Input Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Risk Management plan Risk Register Process Risk probability and impact assessment Probability and Impact matrix Risk data quality assessment Risk categorization Risk Register (updates) Out put 28Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Table 5: Standard values of frequency of occurrence and Impact factors [11] Possibility of occurrence very high chance High chance Greater chance Possible Likely Unlikely Probability (P) 90 % 75% 60% 45% 30% 15% Type and level of risk Impact When maximum impact on scope, time and cost High impact on scope, medium impact on time and lesser impact on cost High impact on time, medium impact on scope and lesser impact on cost When high impact on cost of the project, medium impact on time and lesser impact on scope Impact Factor (I) 0. 9 0. 6 0. 3 0. 1 3. 4 Quantitative risk analysisFor quantitative risk analysis any of the following method may be used as illustrated in Table 6. incorporates probabilities and the costs or rewards of each logical path of events and future decisions, and uses expected monetary value analysis to help the organization identify the relative values of alternate actions. See also expected monetary value analysis. Sensitivity analysis: Sensitivity analysis helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project. It examines the extent to which the uncertainty of each project element affects the objective being examined when all other uncertain elements are held at their baseline value.One typical display of sensitivity analysis is tornado diagram, which is useful for comparing relative importance of variables that have a high degree of uncertainty to those that are more stable. Expected Mon etary Value (EMV) Analysis: It is a statistical technique that calculates the expected outcome of future scenarios in monetary form that may or may not happen. Modeling and simulation: Modeling and simulation is recommended for cost and schedule risk analysis because it is more powerful and less subject to misapplication than expected monetary value analysis. Simulation uses a model that translates the uncertainties specified at a detailed level of the project into their potential impact on project objectives. 3. 5 Risk eduction strategies Risk register may be obtained from risk management procedure defined by Project Management Institute (PMI) [11], which is a document containing the results of the qualitative risk analysis and quantitative risk analysis. On the basis of risk analysis risk reducing strategy is set which is also given in risk register. The risk register in that way, presents all related information of identified risks including description, category, cause, probabil ity of occurring, impact(s), risk number and the possible strategy set for each risk. Decision Tree: The decision tree is a diagram that describes a decision under consideration and the implications of choosing one or another of the available alternatives. It is used when some future scenarios or outcomes of actions are uncertain.It Table 6: Process showing Quantitative risk analysis [19] Input Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Risk Management plan Risk Register Process Out put Quantitative risk analysis ( Sensitivity analysis, Decision Tree, Modeling and Simulation, Expected Monetary Value, EMV) 29 Risk Register (updates) Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 The common course of action of the any organization or participant (consultant, contractor, client or owner) participating in the construction process of oil and gas pipeline can adopt one or combination of course of action given below, depending upon the type of project, lo cation and circumstances.Distribution of risk between participants of the project can be made by: 1. Risk Transfer (insurance, contracts) 2. Contingency Budget 3. Risk mitigation (problem solving and root cause analysis) 4. Risk avoidance 4. Development of Risk Management Model for Pipeline Construction Projects Project Management Institute (PMI) approach of risk analysis and management may be complicated and laborious for construction project like pipeline. Therefore a model of risk analysis and management is developed which simplifies the process and produce more probable results with the implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (Figure 3). Project document review Market Analysis Client/Contractor reviewGeopolitical analysis and review 2. Risk Classification Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) 3. Risk probability and impact factor Data collection (Authentic source) Data processing (Normal, Beta, Gamma, Log, etc distribution) Calculation of Frequency (P) and Impact factor (I) 4. Risk an alysis 5. Monte Carlo Simulation Identification of critical risk 6. Risk management strategy Risk Transfer (Contract, insurance) Risk Distribution (Between parties) Risk Mitigation (Eliminating risk causes) Risk Avoidance 7. Risk monitoring process Documentation Monitoring process and results Check and make changes Data Bank Figure3: Risk Management Model for pipelines construction project. 30Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan STEP-1: Model starts with identification and classification of risks considering the type of construction project. Degree and frequency of risk varies from trunk pipeline to distribution line. Similarly it gives suitable approach for both the major parties i. e. Owner (client) and the Contractor. Before identifying the risk the market review, client/contractor capability and geopolitical conditions of the region are analyzed where project is expected to be executed. The types of risk are also depending upon the ty pe of contractual relationship between the owner and constructing firm. In different ypes of contract (Build-Operate and Transfer, Engineering-Purchase and Construction, Figure, Turnkey contracts, Labour contract, etc) between the owner and constructing body the level and intensity of risk differs [13]. STEP-2: On the basis of risk identification risk are categorized and Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) is made as shown in Figure 4. Risk identification is the most important thing followed by the probability and impact calculations in whole risk analysis process. Figure 4: Risk Breakdown Structure of gas pipeline project STEP-3: Risk probability assessment investigates the likelihood that each specific risk will occur. Risk impact assessment investigates the potential effect on a project objective such as time, cost, scope, or quality.The selection of PMI defined the values of probability and impact factor given in Table 5 is based on expert judgment which may produce controversial res ults. For instance, it may be difficult some time to distinguish the possibility from â€Å"Higher Chance† to â€Å"Greater Chance† for that an expert can use 60% probability value however, another use 45%. In that way some negligible risk may be superseded to other important risk. Risk impact factor defined by Project Management Institute (PMI) are used in this study which range from 0,1 to 0. 9 depending upon the type and impact of event to the project. For risk Monte Carlo Simulation the precise value of probabilities are required.Therefore, probability and impact of each risk may be calculated based on historic data. In this 31 case we the values of probability of different risks are calculated by using different probability distribution curves, however, when the historical data is not available, the probability is judged by experts opinion (from SNGPL) or the direct value of probability for that particular risk published by the related government agency. It is ver y important to define the probability distribution of a risk on the basis of that the frequency of occurrence is calculated. It is observed that the probability distribution of different risk appearing in different stages of project life cycle is different.Therefore, during calculation of probability of each risk the characteristic of risk must be considered to find the appropriate distribution to get the more precise results. For example, figure 5 shows the 10 year data of flood [21] depicts that the a normal curve is best suited to find the probability of a given volume/time called as the flood flow may be calculated using Equation 1,2 and 3 [14]. Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Figure 5: Graphical representation of flood data 1990-2001 where P – probability of occurrence Z – area under normal curves for a given value X (the probability of that area can be found out from charts) ? – mean value of the 10 year data of river flows. ? – standard deviation of the mean data.On the basis of historical data, obtained from IRSA, the probability of river flow more than 400 (MAF) (which is termed as flood flow) through river system of Pakistan (sum of river flow at a time on Mangla and Terbela) is calculated by using measured. Similarly other risks are also quantified based on the characteristic of data distribution curve. For instance, for earthquakes we are interested to find the probability of occurrence earthquake more than 5. 5 Richer Scale. According to construction codes, the earthquake between 3. 5-5. 4 Richer Scale is often felt, but rarely causes damage. A value of 5. 5 Richer Scale is selected to calculate probability of 32 occurrence under assumption that almost slight damage to well designed buildings can caused major damage to poorly constructed buildings over small regions.Pipelines can go under slight damage of residual. For a random variable X (x > 0 and elsewhere i. e. x < 0 the value of probability is zero) have an exponential distribution with parameter ? then probability distribution is defined as in equation (4), (5) and (6) [14]. Therefore either exponential or gamma distribution (with m =1) may be used for probability calculation of earthquake at a given value (in Richer Scale) using the historical data [9], as shown in the Figure 6. where P – probability of occurrence ? – mean value of historic data ? – standard deviation of the historic data e – 2. 718282 VAR is the variance at any value X. For 5. Richer Scale earthquake ? = 1 ? P (X > 5. 5) = ? 1. e – 1*5. 5 = 0. 000408 5. 5 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Frequency of occurrence 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Earthquake Intensity (Richer scale) Figure 6: Graphical representation 45 year earthquake data STEP-4: On the basis of probability values for each risk a risk register (table 7) may be made which presents quantitative risk analysis for each risk. PMI defined impact factor can be used which clear cut defines the type and condition of risk impact. On the basis of this formula below qualitative risk analysis is made.The following relationship is used for risk analysis [11]: RN = P x I RN – Risk Number P – Probability of occurrence I – Impact factor of risk For parameters the data is not available expert judgment can be used for probability assessment. Risk Number (RN) can be found for all risk identified in Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS). Manually it can be identified critical risk having larger risk number, RN based on the one point calculation. However, the more authentic way to identify the critical risks associated to pipeline project is Monte Carlo Simulation approach which is discussed in next step. STEP 5: Monte Carlo simulation is a widely used computational method for generating probability distributions of variables that depend on other variables or param eters represented as probability distributions.Although Monte Carlo simulation has been used since the 1940s, development of computer technology has made it accessible and attractive for many new applications [15]. That availability has coincided with increasing dissatisfaction with the deterministic or point estimate calculations typically used in quantitative risk assessment; as a result, Monte Carlo simulation is rapidly gaining popularity. Monte Carlo simulation, which is a mathematical method used in risk analysis to approximate the distribution of potential results based on probabilistic 33 (7) inputs would involve many calculations of the intake rate rather than a single calculation; for each calculation, the computation would use a value for each input parameter randomly selected from the probability density function for that variable [16].Each simulation is generated by randomly pulling a sample value for each input variable from its defined probability distribution, e. g. uniform, normal, lognormal, triangular, beta, etc. These input sample values are then used to calculate the results, i. e. total project duration, total project cost, project finish time. The inputs can be task duration, cost, start and finish time, etc. This procedure is then repeated until the probability distributions are sufficiently well represented to achieve the desired level of accuracy. They are used to calculate the critical path, slack values, etc. Monte Carlo simulations have been proven an effective methodology for the analysis of project schedule with uncertainties.In Monte Carlo simulation any desired level of mathematical accuracy can be achieved by increasing the number of iterations. Risks are probable entities, it is possible that all the risk accrued at the same time during project execution and may be no identified risk appears. Therefore, it is desired to use Monte Carlo simulation technique to find the most critical and probable risk which can appear in the pi peline project. Risk analysis has been made by using program Riskyproject 1. 3. 3 [20] which is an advanced project management software with integrated risk analysis. RiskyProject is used for planning, scheduling, quantitative risk analysis, and performance measurement of projects with multiple risks and uncertainties.RiskyProject determines which parameters will have the most effect on the project: duration, cost, and finish time with and without risks, crucial tasks, critical risks, and success rate. RiskyProject helps to optimize the course of the project: track project performance and risk together and analyze the affect of mitigation efforts [22]. On the basis of Monte Carlo simulation critical risks are Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Table 7: Risk input in risk register and their quantitative analysis for pre-defined risks Risk Identification and Categorization Cat. Risk 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 1. 2. Risk Register Risk An alysis Freq. Risk reducing StrategyRanking 27 3 23 25 8 14 29 1 12 21 16 8 9 12 4 5 3 2 24 18 19 11 10 5 20 11 12 5 15 3 12 2 6 8 Risk Avoidance Risk Risk Transfer Mitigation Remarks Risk Delay in approvals from regulatory bodies Unstable Government policies Change in regulations Change in labor policy Change in petroleum policy Political instability Lawlessness, strikes, lockouts Change in economic parameters Hike in material prices Unavailability of skilled laborers Change in project scope Insufficient technology Completion of construction not on time Not realistic planning of resources and volume of work Request for increase in project budget In sufficient specialist and engineers Strains in contractual relationships Financial delays Disinvestment from the market Loss ofPartnership Change in credit policy (increase interest rate) Design not completed in time Unexpected obstacle on site (dewatering, rock excavation) Slow communication between team members War Terrorism Accident on site during construction Loss of human life Earthquake Flood Landslides Unexpended weather condition, precipitation wind storms Damage to environment Degradation of natural resources (P) 5,15% 8% 2,10% 2,90% 5% 4% 4,50% 8,10% 8,03% 6,80% 3,9 % 10% 9,50% 8,10% 13,13 % 6,50% 5,30% 6. 1 % 4,40% 3,01% 5,10% 7,80% 7,80% 5,90% 0,10% 2,20% 2% 3,90% 0,04% 3,07% 2,1 % 4,72% 3,75% 1,10% Impact (I) 0,32 0,6 4 0,9 0,6 0,6 0,6 0,3 0,9 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,1 1Risk Number 1,55% 4,80% 1,89% 1,74% 3,00% 2,40% 1,35% 7,29% 2,41% 2,04% 2,34% 3,00% 2,88% 2,43% 3,94% 3,90% 4,77% 5,49% 0,44% 1,81% 1,53% 2,34% 2,34% 3,54% 0,09% 1,98% 1,80% 2,34% 0,12% 2,76% 0,63% 2,82% 2,25% 0,66% E?5 E? E? GO E? E? E? 6 3 GO, EO SA 7 GO E? EO EO EO SA GO SA EO EO SA EO SA EO EO EO SA SA SA SA SA SA SA GO GO 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,3 0,6 0,6 0,6 0. 1- When high impact on cost of the project, medium impact on time and lesser impact on scope. 0. 3- High impact on time, medium impac t on scope and lesser impact on cost. 3. 0. 6- High impact on scope, medium impact on time and lesser impact on cost. 4. 0. 9- When maximum impact on scope, time and cost. 5.EO- Frequency of risk is based on expert’s opinion. 6. GO- Frequency of risk is based on statistic available by relevant Government organization. 7. SA- Frequency of risk is based on statistical analysis. 34 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Figure-7(a): Monte Carlo Simulation conducted for risk analysis of Muree Rawat gas pipeline project presents most probable cost and duration to complete project. It also presents most probable date of completion of the project considering all identified risks. Figure-7(b): Result obtained from simulation identifying most critical risk impacting scope, duration and cost Muree Rawat gas pipeline project dentified impacting on scope, cost and duration of project [Figure 7 (a) and (b)]. Strategy for risk management is set ac cordingly. The following analysis and results was produced by the programme: 35 Sensitivity analysis Success rate of completion Critical risks affecting cost Critical risks affecting duration of project Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Critical activities. Most probable duration Most probable cost of the project Most probable date of completion of project. STEP 6: On the basis of critical risk identification by Monte Carlo simulation, risk reduction strategy is set, which may be risk transfer, mitigation, avoidance, distribution and etc.During construction process the impact of risk can be lowered by changing the schedule of construction for example 95% of probability of flood occurrence is in period from June to August. In flood, the area comes under water and may not be possible to continue the construction process. Therefore, schedule may be set in a way that ground related activities should be set accordingly to avoid the occurrence. STEP 7: The results or set methodol ogy for risk management must be periodically monitored and checked for improvement. Lesson learned and recommendation should be send to â€Å"Data Bank† which may be useful for risk analysis and management of another pipeline project of similar nature. organizational capacity for design, construction and operation. Organizational or technological risk like insufficient resource planning or project management, change in scope etc can be eliminated by improving the process or application of new technologies available in this field. New state of the art technologies are helpful in managing change at any stage of the project. Historical data of river flows shows that the flood has probability of 95% of occurrence between June and August. This risk can be minimized during construction phase by rearranging the construction schedule. Other risks like landslides are associated with floods, rain fall or earthquakes. Earthquake risk during construction phase depends on the length of ex ecution of project and only impact on the construction cost of the project. As the duration of the execution increases probability of occurrence of risk also increase.However, in operation phase this risk must be eliminated by practicing design based on earthquake/horizontal forces. †¢ †¢ 5. Conclusion and Recommendations †¢ Probability of risk occurrence â€Å"P† comes out to be the function of project duration â€Å"T† both during construction and operation phase. However Intensity of destruction or Impact is a function of enterprise internal and external environment. Three most critical tasks calculated by Risky Project are Excavation, Transportation of Material and Stringing of pipelines. The most critical risks come out to be change in economic parameters, Change in design and scope, earthquake and terrorism during construction and operation of gas pipelines.Considering all risks the probable values to project completion calculated by Risky project is 460 days however the base project duration is 390 days. Similarly the project cost without risks is 350,00,000 however, with risks it is 391,00,000. On the basis of that contingency budget of project can be formulated to cater the risk. The secondary risks like change in material prices, construction not finished in time or budget and design not in time can be reduced or transferred to the other party or organization by contract. However SNGPL is designing, constructing and operating gas pipelines so risk can be eliminated by strengthening the internal Acknowledgement Mr. Pervair, Senior General Manager and Engr.Waqar Ashraf, Deputy General Manager (Projects), SNGPL are acknowledged for their contribution and support in providing data and relevant material. †¢ REFERENCE [1] Economic Survey of Pakistan, Ministry of Finance, Chapter 15, Energy Sector of Pakistan, Islamabad, Pakistan. (2006), 219-225. [2] Annual Report; Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL), Lahore, Pakist an (2006), 511. [3] Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) Pipeline Pre-feasibility report by Hagler Bailly Pakistan. Islamabad, Pakistan, (2006), 111-119. [4] Syed Hassan Nawab; Proc. 3rd Pakistan oil & gas conference, Islamabad, Pakistan, (2007), 136-145 [5] Amberish K. D. ; A pipeline through Pakistan, Dehli, India (2004), 131-137. [6] John W. , Edward G. ; International Project Risk Assessment: Methods, Procedures, and Critical †¢ †¢ 36Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Factors (Center Construction Industry Studies, Report No. 31, The University of Texas at Austin) Austin, Texas. (2003), 41-49. [7] FIDIC  © Conditions of contract for construction. (Multilateral Development Bank Harmonized Edition). Geneva, Switzerland. (2005), 217-229. [8] Armbruster J. ; Research Journal, 83(1978) 8891. [9] Mahdi S. , Muhammad S. ; Proc. 1st International Conference on Earthquake Engineering (ICCE), Lahore, Pakistan, (2006), 177-182. 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